Stock Status update for Arrowtooth Flounder (Atheresthes stomias) for the West Coast of British Columbia in 2024

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# Stock Status update for Arrowtooth Flounder (<em>Atheresthes stomias</em>) for the West Coast of British Columbia in 2024
]
.subtitle[
## Assessment model
]
.author[
### C. Grandin
]
.institute[
### DFO
]
.date[
### Slides compiled on 2024-10-02
]

---

exclude: true

---
class: center, bg_arf_face_close
### Introduction

.left[
**Arrowtooth Flounder**
- are a flatfish that occurs in the offshore waters of British Columbia;
- mostly feed on Capelin, Euphausiids, Walleye Pollock, Pandalid shrimp, Herring, and other forage fish;
- are prey for mostly Pacific Cod, Pacific Halibut, and Steller sea lions; for juveniles, adult Arrowtooth Flounder and Walleye Pollock;
- are primarily caught by bottom trawl fishery, and sometimes by hook and line in the Halibut fishery;
- must be frozen shortly after catching due to proteolysis of the flesh;
- seasonal vertical migration to deeper water in winter, shallower in summer; and
- spawn and hatch in deeper water (>350m), in winter.
- were first assessed in 2015 ([Research Document](https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ResDocs-DocRech/2017/2017_025-eng.html))

**The last (2022) assessment model**
- includes data from 1996-2021,
- includes 3 synoptic surveys (QCS, HS, and WCVI),
- includes a Discard CPUE Index, which tracks discards in the commercial fleets,
- is split by sex, and has two commercial trawl fleets (Freezer trawlers and Shoreside).
]
<div class="footer" id="a">
  <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/77659781@N00/6150221707">Photo Source</a>
</div>

---
class: center
### Management History

.left[
- Are managed as a coastwide stock the TAC is a coastwide amount to be shared by all fleets.
- There were no limits on catch prior to 2006.
- A TAC of 15 kt was in place from 2006-2017.
- The TAC increased to 17.5 kt in 2017.
- The TAC decreased to 14 kt in 2019.
- In January 2020 late changes to the IFMP to address declining abundance in the synoptic surveys were recommended. These changes included:
  - reducing 2019/2020 carryover allowance from 30% to 10%,
  - reducing 2020/2021 TAC from 14 kt to 5 kt,
  - reducing the amount of temporary quota a license can hold from 16% to 8% of TAC, and
  - implementing new spatial closures from November 1 to March 31 to limit harvesting of spawning aggregations.
- The TAC was reduced further to 4kt after the 2022 assessment was completed and remains there.
- Closures in 2024 were implemented to protect spawning aggregations of Arrowtooth Flounder:
  - Rennell Sound (November 15, 2024 -- January 15, 2025)
  - Turtleback/Cape Cook (October 15, 2024 -- December 31, 2024)
  - 800 Line/Circle Tow (November 15, 2024 -- March 31, 2025 )

.link-style1[[2024 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan for Groundfish](https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/mplans/ground-fond-ifmp-pgip-sm-eng.html)]
]

---
class: center, bg_arf
### At-sea sampling

.left[
***From the 2024 IFMP:***

- <SPAN STYLE="font-size:18.0pt">Beginning November 1, 2023, a new at-sea sampling pilot program for Arrowtooth Flounder commenced on select</SPAN> <SPAN STYLE="color:#c00000;font-size:18.0pt" class="Bold">Option A</SPAN> <SPAN STYLE="font-size:18.0pt">groundfish trawl vessels delivering frozen products.</SPAN>

- <SPAN STYLE="font-size:18.0pt">Vessel crew are responsible for collecting random samples from unsorted catch at-sea and deliver them to dockside monitoring program staff.</SPAN>

- <SPAN STYLE="font-size:18.0pt">Vessel delivers representative Arrowtooth Flounder samples to dockside observers for biological sampling.</SPAN>

- <SPAN STYLE="font-size:18.0pt">Not applicable to vessels delivering fresh product (Shoreside vessels or 'wet' boats).</SPAN>

]
<div class="footer" id="a">
  <a href="https://www.seafoodwatch.org/recommendation/flounder/arrowtooth-flounder-525">Photo Source</a>
</div>

---
class: center, bg_arf_pencil
### Catch

.left[

- There was no discard reporting prior to 1996, when observers were introduced. Entire tows were often discarded without report. Because of this, a historical catch reconstruction was not attempted.

- Arrowtooth Flounder continued to be discarded at sea in great numbers until the arrival of Freezer Trawlers in the mid 2000's, which could freeze their catch at sea and avoid proteolysis.

- There have been large declines recently (2020-2023) which correspond to TAC reductions.

- The catch has been dominated by Freezer Trawlers from 2010--2023.

- The commercial fishing year for Arrowtooth Flounder starts on Feb 21 and ends on Feb 20. All yearly catch data in this assessment were aggregated in this way.

- The catch (landings + discards) for the Freezer Trawler fleet increased by 30.5% from 2021 to 2022, but then decreased by 48.0% from 2022 to 2023. The Shoreside fleet decreased for both years, by 20.1% from 2021 to 2022, and by 14.6% from 2022 to 2023.
]
<div class="footer" id="a">
  <a href="https://stock.adobe.com/images/arrowtooth-flounder-atheresthes-stomas-a-flatfish-from-the-north-pacific-in-top-view/317577516?as_campaign=ftmigration2&as_channel=dpcft&as_campclass=brand&as_source=ft_web&as_camptype=acquisition&as_audience=users&as_content=closure_asset-detail-page">Photo Source</a>
</div>

---
class: center
### Spatial Catch by Area 1996-2023

---
class: center
### Catch by fleet

---
class: center
### Catch by fleet

<table class="table table table table table" style="font-size: 8px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; font-size: 8px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; font-size: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
<tr>
<th style="empty-cells: hide;border-bottom:hidden;" colspan="1"></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="3"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Freezer Trawlers</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="3"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Shoreside</div></th>
<th style="empty-cells: hide;border-bottom:hidden;" colspan="1"></th>
</tr>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Year </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Landings </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Discards </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Total </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Landings </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Discards </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Total </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Total Catch </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2015 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 8,855.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 637.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 9,492.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,194.9 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,125.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,320.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 11,812.8 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2016 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 9,367.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 305.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 9,672.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,817.7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,007.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,825.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 12,497.9 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2017 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 8,286.9 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 292.9 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 8,579.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,143.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 680.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,823.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 11,403.6 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 7,527.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 257.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 7,784.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,048.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 430.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,478.9 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 9,263.6 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 5,836.1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 312.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 6,148.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,191.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 302.7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,494.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 7,642.7 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 947.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 26.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 973.7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 745.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 220.7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 966.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,939.9 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,504.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 44.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,549.1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,156.5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 270.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,426.7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 3,975.8 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2022 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 3,213.9 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 113.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 3,327.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 870.1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 269.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,139.3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 4,466.5 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2023 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,638.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 92.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 1,731.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 688.7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 283.9 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 972.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;width: 6em; "> 2,704.0 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
class: center
### Stock Assessment Model
.left[
- no changes to the 2022 parameterization,

- includes catch data from 1996--2021,

- includes ages from 1996-- 2021 (no new ages),

- very small change in growth parameters from the 2022 stock assessment,

- includes 3 synoptic surveys (QCS, HS, and WCVI),

- includes a Discard CPUE Index, which tracks discards in the commercial fleets,

- is split by sex, and has two commercial trawl fleets (Freezer trawlers and Shoreside).

- M fixed at 0.2 for Females and 0.35 for Males

- all parameter estimates were very close to those in Table 6 of the 2022 stock assessment

- median posterior for `\(B_0\)` decreased from 184.16 in 2022 stock assessment to 178.50

- the median posterior biomass estimates were also slightly less than the estimates in the 2022 stock assessment, so there was not much scaling effect in the relative biomass
]

---
class: center
### Absolute Biomass

---
class: center
### Relative Biomass

---
class: center
### Recruitment estimates

---
class: center
### Index fits

.left[

- One new index point added for each of the 3 Synoptic surveys:
  - 2022 for the West Coast Vancouver Island Synoptic Survey,
  - 2023 for the Queen Charlotte Sound Synoptic Survey and the Hecate Strait Synoptic Survey,

- Two new index points for the Discard CPUE Index, 2022 and 2023.

- Discard CPUE Index values for all years changed from the 2022 stock assessment because they are fit by a GLMM (light grey points in Figure 5).

- The 2022 point for the Discard CPUE Index and the 2023 point for the Queen Charlotte Sound Synoptic Survey were not fit well, but the medians were within the uncertainty.

- The slight increase in the survey indices in 2023 are driving the increase in estimated biomass for the beginning of 2024.
]

---
class: center
### Index fits

---
class: center
### Length data

.left[

- sex-specific lengths continue to be recorded for surveys, and show that the population is made up of a greater proportion of larger females than males.
 
- no length sampling since 2019 for the Shoreside fleet.
 
- Small number of length samples in 2020 in the Freezer Trawler fleet, then none until 2023 when the new at-sea sampling started (bags of fish frozen at sea and sampled on shore)
 
- Survey data show larger females make up more of the samples than males.
 
- In 2023, the Freezer Trawler fleet sampled more males than females, or at least male length distribution was tighter than females.
]

---
class: center
### Length data

---
class: center
### Selectivity and Maturity

---
class: center
### MCMC Diagnostics

.left[

- MCMC chain of 10,000,000, sampled every 5,000, with burn-in of 1,000, leaving 1,000 posterior samples for inference.

- Traceplots appear stable, without artifacts, as in the 2022 stock assessment.

- There is very little autocorrelation in the parameters.

- Catchability parameters show more correlation with each other in this update than in the 2022 stock assessment, this is mostly evident in the catchability for the Queen Charlotte Sound Synoptic Survey and the Hecate Strait Synoptic Survey parameters (q1 and q3).

- The pairs plot is Figure 41 in the 2022 stock assessment.
]

---
class: center
### MCMC Diagnostics - Traceplots

---
class: center
### MCMC Diagnostics - Autocorrelations in parameters

---
class: center
### MCMC Diagnostics - Parameter correlations

---
class: center
### Catch Projections and Decision Tables

.left[

- DFO Sustainable Fisheries Framework (SFF) reference points could not be used (MSY-based), as the selectivity estimates included non-mature fish which appeared to make the entire stock vulnerable to the stock.

- The LRP is `\(0.2B_0\)`, the USR is `\(0.4B_0\)`, and the alternative USR `\(0.35B_0\)`.

- The catch levels projected were truncated at Fishery management's request to 1kt to 8kt in 1kt increments. In the 2022 stock assessment, they were from 1kt to 15kt.

- Decision tables are also opposite of the ones in the 2022 stock assessment, as all of the probabilities are of being ***above*** the reference points instead of below.

]

---
class: center
### Catch Projections

---
class: center
### Decision tables - `\(0.2B_0\)`

Probability that projected biomass is greater than the <SPAN STYLE="color:#c00000" class="Bold">LRP</SPAN> of `\(0.2B_0\)`

<table class="table table table table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> Catch (kt) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2025} &gt; 0.2B_{0})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2026} &gt; 0.2B_{0})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2027} &gt; 0.2B_{0})\) </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.998 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.998 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.998 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.998 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.998 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.998 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.996 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.997 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.994 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.995 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.992 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.990 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.994 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.991 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.985 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.993 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.988 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.975 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
class: center
### Decision tables - `\(0.35B_0\)`

Probability that projected biomass is greater than the <SPAN STYLE="color:#c00000" class="Bold">alternative USR</SPAN> of `\(0.35B_0\)`

<table class="table table table table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> Catch (kt) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2025} &gt; 0.35B_{0})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2026} &gt; 0.35B_{0})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2027} &gt; 0.35B_{0})\) </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.776 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.864 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.899 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.756 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.838 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.871 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.731 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.804 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.836 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.703 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.771 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.791 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.680 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.740 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.746 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.655 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.705 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.702 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.636 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.658 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.647 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.606 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.615 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.603 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
class: center
### Decision tables - `\(0.4B_0\)`

Probability that projected biomass is greater than the <SPAN STYLE="color:#c00000" class="Bold">USR</SPAN> of `\(0.4B_0\)`

<table class="table table table table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> Catch (kt) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2025} &gt; 0.4B_{0})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2026} &gt; 0.4B_{0})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2027} &gt; 0.4B_{0})\) </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.543 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.694 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.761 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.512 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.654 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.717 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.490 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.609 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.664 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.468 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.564 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.623 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.438 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.527 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.569 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.406 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.484 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.517 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.386 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.434 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.469 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.369 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.403 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.420 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
class: center
### Decision tables - Biomass increase

Probability that projected biomass will increase from one year to the next

<table class="table table table table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> Catch (kt) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2025} &gt; B_{2024})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2026} &gt; B_{2025})\) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> \(P(B_{2027} &gt; B_{2026})\) </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.964 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.952 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.898 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.925 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.929 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.852 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.867 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.885 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.795 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.781 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.812 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.715 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.681 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.748 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.655 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.591 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.668 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.586 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.516 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.607 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.521 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.455 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.540 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.469 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
class: center
### Projected Relative Biomass in 2025 for Catch in 2024

---
class: center
### Projected Relative Biomass in 2026 for Catch in 2025

---
class: center
### Projected Relative Biomass in 2027 for Catch in 2026